ARDOT Solar Eclipse Modeling

Statewide, Arkansas

ATG | DCCM is tasked with providing subconsultant travel demand modeling assistance to Garver, LLC to develop a Traffic Mitigation Plan for the 2024 Solar Eclipse. On April 8, 2024, a solar eclipse will cross a large portion of the United States over many states. Much of Arkansas will be in the path of totality. Due to the amount of land within the “path of totality” and number of potential viewing sites, this event will likely be the largest one-day economic event in Arkansas’s history; Arkansas Department of Transportation (ARDOT) estimates as many as 1.5 million visitors may enter the state to view the eclipse.

To determine potential problem areas for mitigation, ATG | DCCM is tasked with developing traffic forecasting estimates utilizing the Arkansas Statewide Travel Demand Model (AR TDM). ATG | DCCM conducted research on past events and similar eclipse planning efforts, to understand the potential traffic generators and viewing locations within the state during the event.

ATG | DCCM reviewed the ARTDM’s match to 2020 traffic counts in the solar eclipse event viewing area and made refinements aimed at improving the model match to counts. Refinements included adjustment of trip generation parameters, trip distribution parameters, mode shares, and external trip ends.

After the model was validated, ATG | DCCM ran scenarios designed to assist in developing planning level estimates of travel volumes and patterns for the 2024 solar eclipse event.

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