FORECASTING

FORECASTING FOR TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENTS

ATG generates project and system level traffic and ridership forecasts to support the entire project development process:

  • Regional Analysis
  • Feasibility Studies
  • Evaluation of Alternatives
  • Environmental Analysis
  • Project Design
  • Operational Analysis
  • Economic Analysis
  • Project Prioritization

Our forecasting solutions cover the entire range and scale of projects … from site specific … through regional … and statewide … to national. Forecasting solutions are customized to address specific project requirements. We tailor our work to fit your schedule, budget and accuracy requirements. ATG develops forecasts for any mode of transportation (pedestrian, bike, vehicle, transit, or freight) and incorporates emerging transportation technologies and trends (e.g., autonomous vehicles, ride-sharing companies).

Forecasting techniques include the development of travel demand models and data driven solutions derived from traffic counts, GPS data, surveys, and anonymously collected mobile phone traces.

ATG has more full-time, dedicated travel demand modelers and traffic forecasters than most multi-national firms. ATG was founded in 1997, as a travel demand forecasting company that also collected its own travel surveys and traffic counts. As such, ATG has a deep and meaningful understanding of transportation data that form the foundation of the best forecasting solutions.

We partner with clients to deliver projects on-time and on-budget, while performing beyond expectations.

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ATG has successfully delivered travel forecasts and tools to agencies throughout the United States. Our forecasting team understands that forecasting purposes and requirements vary and can produce the information required to support a modern transportation planning agency. We generate travel forecasts for:

  • Statewide Plans and Policy Analysis
  • Metropolitan Transportation Plans and Air Quality Conformity Analysis
  • City and County Plans
  • Transit systems planning
  • Traffic forecasts in support of the design and operations of roadways
  • Site-specific traffic forecasting
  • Corridor and statewide traffic forecasting
  • Rail transit operational analyses
  • Multi-jurisdictional Alternatives Analysis (AA)
  • Planning and Environmental Linkages (PEL) Studies
  • Environmental Impact Studies (EIS)
  • Mobile Source Air Toxics (MSAT)
  • Traffic for Pavement Design
  • Project Prioritization
  • Toll and Revenue Analysis

ATG is a recognized leader in the design, development and application of state-of-the-practice and advanced practice travel demand models.

Boy, that’s a mouth full, but it’s true. Just ask around!

Our travel demand models (TDM’s) allow decision-makers to understand how existing travel patterns evolve as their region grows and measures transportation benefits of planned projects.

ATG has decades of experience and in-depth expertise in the development and application of travel demand models for transportation planning. Alliance is the architect of acclaimed statewide models in Arkansas and Texas. We have developed generations of advanced urban models for MPO’s that are customized to their specific needs. Our team of highly skilled travel modelers have created innovative solutions, including a national long distance model which was designed, programmed, calibrated, and delivered in only nine months.

This experience allows ATG to provide immediate value and results to any travel demand modeling needs that you may have, whether developing additional model components or applying a current TDM to test policy initiatives or growth scenarios.

Specialized forecasting services performed by Alliance:

Toll Feasibility / Traffic and Revenue Studies

ATG has a history of accurately forecasting traffic and revenue. We accurately predicted tolled traffic on US 183 A, SH 45, Loop 1 (North) and SH-130, Segments 1-4 in Texas. All of these projects proved to be toll viable. We pride ourselves in doing the job right and providing you the right answer, even if it’s not the answer you want. For example, we predicted low traffic levels on Segments 5 & 6 of SH-130 in Texas and told the developing agency that it would not sustain tolls. In 2016, Segments 5 & 6 went into receivership.

Freight Forecasting

ATG has proven experience in developing truck and freight models using TRANSEARCH, commercial vehicle surveys, STB Waybill, ATRI truck GPS points, and Freight Analysis Framework data. Using both national and locally collected data sets and surveys, ATG developed commercial vehicle (trucks) models for travel demand models, as well as, integrated freight commodity based forecasting systems for regional and statewide projects.

Transit Forecasting

We produce defensible forecasts to evaluate capital transit projects to comply with FTA requirements. ATG recently provided forecasts for the following projects:

  • Alternatives Analysis and Environmental Impact Study efforts for the Denton County Transit Authority Commuter Rail Project;
  • Dallas Area Rapid Transit (DART) South Oak Cliff light rail extension; and
  • Cotton Belt Rail Line Alternatives Analysis and EIS.

We have used FTA’s Simplified Trips on Project Software (STOPS) as both a quick response tool and as a reasonableness check for traditionally produced forecasts.

Passenger Rail and High Speed Rail Ridership Forecasting

ATG has in-depth experience and expertise in the development and application of travel demand models for use in multimodal models, Alternatives Analyses, and Environmental Impact Studies for both Passenger Rail and High Speed Rail facilities. Recently, Alliance staff has provided travel forecasts for the evaluation of passenger and high speed rail (HSR) service in a corridor spanning from South Texas to Oklahoma City (TOPRS). Learn more at Texas-Oklahoma Passenger Rail Study Project Website

We also produce and use forecasting tools based on observed cellphone data and anonymously collected origin-destination (OD) data.

ATG developed a national long distance travel model in support of a passenger rail analysis in Arkansas.

Forecasts for Operational Analysis

Linking planning and operations is important to improve transportation decision-making and the overall effectiveness of transportation systems. Coordination between planners and traffic engineers helps ensure that regional transportation investment decisions reflect full consideration of all available strategies and approaches to meet regional goals and objectives (Federal Highway Administration, accessed January 2009, [online] available at plan4operations.dot.gov)

Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) Models

ATG has developed project specific applications using numerous Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) software including:

  • I-35 Corridor Development Program (Rider 42), Austin, TX (2014). ATG identified effective strategies to improve mobility and connectivity for all modes of transportation, including performing innovative traffic mesoscopic modeling. ATG led the assessment and conversion of the Capital Area MPO (CAMPO) TransCAD based model outputs to the TransModeler based Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) model, and directed the activities for the assessment of alternatives to improve the corridor for the year 2025.
  • ATG is utilizing an advance Dynamic Traffic Assignment tool developed by the Center for Transportation Research (CTR) at the University of Texas to evaluate roadway improvements.

Air Quality Analysis

Most people consider air quality conformity to be an auto related issue, the ability to model transit, bicycle and pedestrian project outcomes allows MPOs and DOTs to quantify and take credit for reductions in vehicle miles of travel (VMT) and related reductions in mobile source emissions provided by these alternative transportation projects. Being able to show the air quality benefits of these projects also helps people understand the importance of healthier transportation options.

Mobile Source Air Toxics (MSAT)

ATG has provided the detailed execution of a regional travel demand model required for MSAT analyses for many clients. The basic concept is to use the official regional travel demand model to identify and select links roadway links where assigned traffic on those links differ by:

  • +/- 10% for Level of Services A, B, and C links
  • +/- 5% for Level of Service D, E, and F links

Once the network links meeting the criteria above have been selected, the same links are selected in the base year network. These links represent the affected transportation network for the MSAT analysis.

Project Prioritization and Performance Measures

The FastACT and its supporting metropolitan transportation regulations have performance management criteria that require increased quantitative analysis using performance measures to evaluate the transportation system outcomes of proposed projects, including highway, transit and non-motorized travel. ATG has helped its many State DOT and MPO clients develop the capability to use their TDM to demonstrate the mobility related performance outcomes of their Statewide and Metropolitan Transportation Plans, policies and individual multi-modal projects. ATG work with performance measures and performance management helps MPOs maintain certification of their metropolitan transportation planning process and comply with FAST Act regulatory requirements. The TDM performances outcomes can also potentially make the region eligible for additional federal program dollars and help to make the region’s projects more competitive in the federal fund allocation process.

Bike and Ped (Active transportation)

Local sponsors now see the value of active transportation projects that can provide meaningful travel options for the community. Often agencies struggle to fully evaluate these projects with their current tools. ATG designs its advanced practice travel demand models and operational analysis tools to lay the groundwork for clients to be able to test the impact of pedestrian and bicycle facilities and improvements so that as data and resources become available clients can optimize their program of multi-modal projects and project designs to put the best possible combination of projects in place.